Western finals preview

NO. 1 THUNDER VS. NO. 6 TIMBERWOLVES

The Thunder beat the Wolves on New Year's Eve. That isn't code.

The teams played each other thrice in February, a home-and-home scheduled 24 hours and 800 miles apart (two good games, road team won each time). Minnesota won by 15 at home on Valentine's Day Eve.

That was code. Warm up the Capri.

OKLAHOMA CITY

C: Isaiah Hartenstein – fouled only nine times in 101 minutes against Minnesota in the regular season, four contests. Must regain the command on his floater.
PF/C: Chet Holmgren – worked twice against the Wolves in the regular season, Chet-like outings, 15 and eight rebounds per game, five blocks and four fouls in 58 minutes, popped 4-6 from deep. If he doesn't try to do too much, Holmgren should frustrate Julius Randle into rainbows and back rims. Julius worked once against OKC in the regular season, 11 points on a dozen attempts (Holmgren out with injury).
F: Jalen Williams – James Worthy didn't win his first title until he was 25, Williams turned 24 in April and honked 6-21 from deep in four games against the Timberwolves in the regular season.

SG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 35-7-7 on 64 percent True Shooting against MIN in four regular season games, no bigs, 13 turnovers in 149 minutes. Must put four fouls on Jaden McDaniels by halftime.
G: Luguentz Dort – Timberwolves need to follow Denver's lead and force Dort into questioning his form, taking a new jumper every time. Lu Dort needs to follow Lu Dort's lead and continue to not give a bleep.

Alex Caruso starting the second half of Game 7 against Denver was some cold shit, Mark Daigneault, lurching ahead for the coup de grace and caring not what OKC's new starting center thinks about coming off the bench ... Aaron Wiggins popped 8-16 threes but was a -20 in 81 minutes (four games) against the Timberwolves in the regular season ... Jaylin Williams is here just in case the Thunder need to frustrate the Timberwolves in Minnesota's lowest moment.

Isaiah Joe was a team-leading +20 in OKC's win over Minnesota on Dec. 31 and is exactly the sort of fresh-legged bugger to give Minnesota's rotation fits ... Cason Wallace fouled 11 times in 88 minutes against Minnesota this season, he gets back on defense and drove the dagnab Denver Nuggets silly in the semifinals.

The Thunder don't screw up, and force others into screwing up. They develop more chances for themselves than their opponents, so much so that that opponent kinda freaks out during the possessions that actually do end up in a field goal attempt.

We watched Oklahoma City grow against the Grizzlies and Nuggets, watched them figure things out. Watched them work their way through the sort of obstacles which didn't develop against New Orleans in the 2024 postseason, the problems OKC couldn't get over in that 4-2 loss to Dallas.

This year was different, and not because the Grizzlies imploded or Aaron Gordon pulled a hamstring. The experience shows, the Thunder pace their way through troubles without Alex Caruso on the floor, without Hartenstein as a necessary component. The holdovers, the ones who lost to Dallas, drive this team.

MINNESOTA

C: Rudy Gobert – only worked against the Thunder once in the regular season, a loss. Presence will dissuade some of OKC's transition instincts. It will be good to have Rudy around but if he brings the ball below his waist once in this series, the Timberwolves are cooked.
PF: Julius Randle – won't have the same space and vision as in the Warrior series but that's good, nobody wants to see Randle stopping the ball while sizing up Chet Holmgren anyway. Golden State's grabby defense reminded Julius that he's at his best using his head and trusting what he sees, making simple plays on offense. If Randle spots the same angles against OKC, the favorites will have a tough time putting Minnesota away quickly.
F: Jaden McDaniels – did well to stay on his feet against Jimmy Butler and will be asked to do the same in the Western finals, could be key defensive stopper on the likely NBA MVP or Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could have him twisted in knots. I reckon we see equal amounts of each.
SG: Anthony Edwards – must remain patient in this series, as well, the Timberwolves don't need 16 points in every first half to survive. There will be enough possessions in this game for Ant to orchestrate comebacks, but he can't get ahead of himself. As soon as you think you've got the Thunder settled down, that's when they dig deep to rile you up. This is mostly about them getting in the way of spin moves.
PG: Mike Conley – 9-17 on threes in four games against the Thunder this season, a large improvement on the 1-5 Conley shot on threes in three contests against the Seattle SuperSonics in 2007-08. Mike has worked against the New Jersey Nets, New Orleans Hornets and Charlotte Bobcats as well.

Randle got his and Karl-Anthony Towns is rollin' at the moment with New York and now it is Donte DiVincenzo's turn to flip his particular script:

Naz Reid's ability to score in the lane amongst the Thunder trees, or pull the pines toward the corner, that's gonna break this series.

He averaged 22 and 11 against Oklahoma City in the regular season, started three times. What's more impressive is this outing off Minnesota's bench, where Naz eased his team back into contention in an eventual Thunder win:

Nickeil Alexander-Walker's started to turn it around, the playoffs are slowing down for him. Either the last thing NAW needs is to play against his MVP cousin in the NBA's Final Four, or that's the absolute best setting for him. If he helps clean up in transition, getting back to spots the Nuggets could not, Minnesota is in with a jab.

Has to begin in Game 1, against the Thunder's "rhythm."

TUE, THU, SAT, MON, WED, FRI, SUN

Anthony Edwards understood what the Warriors were in for upon Stephen Curry's injury, made sure there wasn't a Game 6, made sure it wasn't close. Went at Jonathan Kuminga like Kuminga was a lesser video game number, like the computer had no choice but to let the ball go in.

Edwards can't do that against Oklahoma City, disrupt and drive and figure it out while inside the chest of another in-air defender. Edwards struggled against Oklahoma City in the regular season, 36 percent from the floor and 31 from deep, He thought he had the Thunder sussed – hell, we thought he had them beat – before OKC sprung out of everywhere to change his shot.

The refs aren't calling anything, offense matters more than ever and nobody has the legs for three-pointers. Minnesota wins if it is able to keep sense of its self while adjusting for a shot, freeing feet from tangles in the lane. The Wolves must make plays, patient plays, I think they like each other enough to pass the dang ball.

That goes away the minute Minnesota gets punched, Game 2 will be rough, but Tuesday's Game 1 (Minnesota last played on May 14) could turn interesting.

The Thunder have every reason to feel as if Game 1 is just another home turnaround, a regular season Sunday and Tuesday, one marvelous Western team out and another marvelous team flying in.

The Timberwolves have to make the Thunder feel as if Oklahoma City was lucky to keep up with the woebegone Nuggets, let alone the modern-as-tomorrow Timberwolves.

Minnesota's success is always in the balance between brash and been-there-before. Edwards alone has the playmaking and postgame magnetism to outshine OKC as a collection, two and a half hours to prove that the Wolves aren't made up of last-chance veterans and Knick castoffs.

The pack doesn't have to prove anything, but Anthony Edwards does. He's recognized strength in his teammates all spring, he has to sustain that serenity when things are toughest.

Timberwolves in seven

Game 1 on Tuesday at – how did Mike Breen put it? – "a little after 8:30" PM Eastern on ESPN

THE LOTTERY

It's a week later. Is it still so bad? It's not like he went back to Duke.

The lottery is not meant to help the worst NBA teams. The lottery is to determine the order of the first 14 picks in the NBA draft, that's it.

We appreciated Washington's diligent rebuild all season and what can we say but virtue is its own reward. Owner Ted Leonsis remarked last week that his team didn't tank last season, rather they were "developing players."

Yes, exactly. That's what you get. Plus a draft pick.

I was annoyed as anyone that the lottery went Dallas' way, mostly because of the damning irony behind the coin flip Dallas over with my favorite NBA team, leading Dallas to the spot in the lottery which earned the top pick. Bulls fans knew Dallas was in the top three as soon as the Mavericks won that coin flip.

But, like, NBA fans don't need Cooper Flagg on the Spurs as much as fans don't need him on the Jazz. Would I prefer him propping up Washington, maybe Charlotte? Sure, but handing top-tier talent to middling franchises is interesting. Be they as disparate as Atlanta (anonymous) or Dallas (drama-rich) and Zaccharie Risacher (nuance, international versatility) or Cooper Flagg (white bro, dunks).

The regular season, in spite of player injuries and rest dates, is very good. It noticeably improved when the NBA added the Play-In and flattened lottery odds. We don't need lottery tournaments, either, NBA players will not play hard for the right to move up a spot in the draft, suck more money and playing time from their hopes and ambitions.

What they would do is tank those tournaments, hilariously, so maybe we need those tournaments.

I do like the top prospects attending the lottery because at some point an undesirable team will win the lottery and the likely No. 1 overall pick will not prefer this destination and show as much, on camera. And this will be one of the great nights in NBA history.

I USED TO BE A RADICAL

"Think I'm makin' it up?"

Thanks for reading! East next.