Eastern semifinals preview
NO. 2 CELTICS VS. NO. 3 KNICKS
These guys know each other?
BOSTON
C: Kristaps Porziņģis – bad offensively against Orlando but I can't be bothered, crushes the other team by being out there, standing tall. Played very well in two appearances against the Knicks (24 per on 50/45/71) in the regular season.
PF: Al Horford – the first time he played the Knicks, Al guarded Eddy Curry. Nine blocks in the first round, in five games, turns 39 in a month.
F: Jayson Tatum – 33 a game on 53/48/80 in four regular season games against the Knicks. OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges will try to make these forwards work, pell-mell drives from the corner, I don't know if that succeeds.
F: Jaylen Brown – swears his bum knee is just about back to full health and we couldn't feel happier for him, no player on a swing like Jaylen's deserves to be waylaid. Struggled from the field in four games against New York this season, all Celtic victories.
G: Derrick White – I am uncomfortable with continually returning to Boston's regular season sweep of New York, Tatum says the sweep means nothing and he's right, but Derrick White was awfully good against New York in the regular season,
Jrue Holiday hit two-thirds his shots and 8-14 threes against New York in four regular season games. It would be an extreme luxury for Boston to sit Jrue (and his bad hamstring) through the Eastern semifinals but we'd like to see them try, New York doesn't exactly overwhelm its opponents with depth.
I like the fact that Payton Pritchard, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser are all disparate heights. Sometimes I get the white guys on the Cavs mixed up. Not Strus, he's from Chicago, but the fair-haired fellas. The ones that need a parasol on the beach: Wade, Merrill.
It is this tented triptych plus maybe Torrey Craig, if Joe Mazzulla wants to make a point with a headstrong vet ahead of a second-year player he's had through two training camps. A potent rotation, surely enough to overwhelm New York's attempts to pretend they've made new lineups out of the same six players.
Three guys earn major free throws on this Celtic team, major free throws, and Derrick White is right there. Everyone shoots and passes and defends. I wish Hubie Brown were doing a game this weekend.
The Celtics will go after the Knick weak points at center and point guard, but when the ball starts moving, and it should start moving, it will be up to the helpers to make sound decisions. Zero refs fall for feints in this postseason, they aren't calling anything, workers beyond Tatum and Jaylen will have to step into good attempts and swish.
NEW YORK
C: Karl-Anthony Towns – coming to a roiling, screaming, knockdown point at some juncture: Thibs, why doesn't KAT get the ball in the Dirk position? Why can't KAT work from the low-post? Even in this series, against Boston's storied frontline. Especially in this series, against this storied (old, injured) frontcourt.
F: Josh Hart – hit half his threes and field goals against Detroit, made it so Isaiah Stewart won't sleep all summer, good work so far. Isaiah Stewart has to learn that players can still get in fights while wearing street clothes.
No fights in this series. New York and Boston knew they'd be here, months ago.
Hart has to make his superstar counterparts work in this series, to think about him the minute someone releases the ball. He has the ability to drive Brown and Horford and KP batty, I want to watch his best effort.
F: OG Anunoby – Boston put an end to his l'il run of greatness in early April, made Anunoby look ordinary. Anunoby has to put post-up pressure on the champs without taking the Knicks out of whatever the hell their offense is.
G/F: Mikal Bridges – absolutely went for it in the Piston series but it was hard to argue with the results in Game 6, when he tumbled toward the rim and scored 26 much-needed points. They'll need that threat, and more, against Boston, against whom Mikal Bridges managed a yee-ikes 48 percent True Shooting in the regular seasons, one free throw attempt in four games, 134 minutes, 13.8 points and 1.8 rebounds per game.
PG: Jalen Brunson – somehow must keep his head, be the massive advantage in a series where Jrue Holiday may not be at full strength, may not play at all. Brunson was (27 points on a 67 percent True Shooting) against Boston in the regular season.
Jalen must star, because the Knicks are on the road now.
New York's been on a trip since dropping Game 2 at home, to Detroit and Manhattan and back to Detroit and back to NYC for a day, maybe, then off to Boston for two games. Every game in New York will be relaxed and at home, but it will also feel like a visit.
Brunson has to be the threat, the footwork that can give you 42 at any time. He'd also do well to let that 7-foot teammate of his take the ball once in a while.
Mitchell Robinson is not in shape, tune or time with his teammates, yet he can still work his way toward a significant role in this series. Boston's large, loping bigs may look a step slow by comparison, but only if Mitchell stays on his feet.
Landry Shamet was sick and missed a couple of games and Tom Thibodeau, eager for the excuse to field fewer and fewer players, probably insisted Landry Shamet huddle with the rest of the reserves and talk it up.
Now, I would never say the Knicks' coach encouraged his players to develop sickness, intentionally. Because the Knicks haven't listed anyone as ill on the injury report.
Cameron Payne's Game 1 performance is the only reason the Knicks are here, and his Games 2-6 performances were nearly the reason that the Knicks didn't make it here. We don't make enough X-Factors out of so-so players, X-Factors are always someone good or interesting when they should be someone like Markus Howard or James Ennis.
Boston has too much but New York has enough. If the defending champs pick the worst possible time to lose the legs to develop threes, let alone make them, we could have a series. Each of these games should be close, regardless of outcome.
Game 1 on Monday in Boston on TNT at 7:00 PM Eastern
MON, WED, SAT, MON, WED, FRI, MON
Knicks steal home-court in Game 2, Celtics win 4-1
NO. 1 CAVALIERS VS. NO. 4 PACERS
Teams paired reserves against each other twice in April, Pacers won twice. Played a home-and-home in mid-January, no injuries to note, road team won each game.
Sometimes, and I don't want to make long-winded generalizations, but highway participants in Indiana and Ohio are known for using the left-hand lane for driving periods extending beyond explicit passing of drivers in the right hand lane.
I don't want to make any outright accusations. Like I would against drivers in Minneapolis, where they cling to the left-hand lane like that's where the gold coins are.
CAVALIERS
C: Jarrett Allen – fouled four times but earned 14 free throws in four games against the Pacers, two of them relevant.
PF/C: Evan Mobley – if he inadvertently owns the offensive boards in this series, it ends quickly. Pacer guards gotta get down there and guess what? Pacer guards will. Guess what? It may not matter.
F: Max Strus – the shooting you can live with, but when he starts up with that extra pass, that's when you want to throttle the guy. – Bill Renegan. What if I began making up fake quotes from fake scouts?
G: Donovan Mitchell – hit half his twos and 48 percent of his threes against Miami and brought down Cleveland's overall 66 True Shooting percentage with his 62 percent mark. Played well in two performances against Indiana this season, up against those endless guards.
PG: Darius Garland – a bum toe affects everything, impossible to play on without drugs, and if Garland returns too early his entire postseason could be sidelined.
He is doubtful for Game 1 and for whatever reason this heartens me. The Cavs can win a long series with Garland sidelined for the first two games at home, I don't want them to push it, I don't want to think about Darius Garland's toe every time he catches the ball in late May and early June.
He suffered the injury against the Bulls on April 8 (or, at the very least, he was very angry when he checked out of that game) and has sat for four outta seven available contests since. If Garland takes off Game 1, that's three games in 27 days. If he takes off Game 2, three games in 30 days.
Still may not be enough rest for turf toe.
Sam Merrill will start if Garland is out which makes sense, Sam Merrill's handles are unreal.
Ty Jerome's size should go a long way in this series, but the Pacers will make him work defensively. Even without Garland, Cleveland has a fair bit of depth to fall back upon in case Jerome's legs briefly leave him ... DeAndre Hunter was not great (4-14 from the field) in the two relatively close contests in Cleveland but on fire (12-19, 6-9 from deep) down in Miami. I gotta remind this guy, Indianapolis is not Miami. Kenny Atkinson's barely even begun experimenting with Hunter's lineups.
Dean Wade didn't get open in the first round against Miami but he was the only one. Wade delivered a 12-to-1 rebound-to-turnover ratio in the first round and if this were 2000 I could probably get a rom-com financed out of that idea, rebound-to-turnover ratio, Untitled Bridgette Wilson Project.
Isaac Okoro maintained his regular season percentages against Miami and that's all we can ask for. Stunk in the regular season against Indiana and possibly redundant in this series, but can still close out on defense and make the good play from the corner, good luxury to have deep on this bench.
This team is stacked. Koby Altman should never have to pay for food at a drive-thru in Ohio ever again because we should ban drive-thrus they are bad for the environment.
PACERS
C: Myles Turner – cannot wait to watch him try to make each Cavalier big man phase each other out, hope the referees let Turner (11 blocks against Milwaukee) stay on the floor.
F: Pascal Siakam – Bucks were built to defend him and Siakam still scored 20 a game on 63 percent True Shooting. May have to be huge if the Pacer bench falls off.
G: Aaron Nesmith – Milwaukee had the sixth-best three-point shooting in the regular season and Nesmith popped 14-27 (52 percent) in five games.
G: Andrew Nembhard – hit half his threes against the Bucks, which, wow.
Admittedly he had less to chase around in Milwaukee (now there's a Gary Stewart song), but if Nembhard works his typical defense and leads another Pacer charge from long range (39 percent against MKE), Cleveland will need some time to get to four wins.
PG: Tyrese Haliburton – Cavs will make him work and he's only known about that since, oh, October. Tyrese completely reformatted his game to save legs for (at minimum) actual appearances and (at largest) big fourth quarters at the end of playoff games after playing defense all night.
I trust Haliburton in so many ways which were not the case this time last year, ways not wrought by that hamstring. He gave up the ball and responsibility and box score numbers and the Pacers didn't even have to trade for an All-Star guard to settle him down (this is not a reference to Cleveland or any other club). They didn't have to bring someone in to big time Haliburton.
Rather, Indiana brought in Pascal Siakam. Works off the ball, scoring way more off assists than he did the year before in Toronto or in five previous years before in Toronto. That isn't who Haliburton cedes to, Tyrese gives it up to Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, never All-Stars. When Haliburton sits he hears the Pacer crowd crush out over T.J. McConnell, dominating the ball, only giving it up when it is time for an assist, the opposite of what coach Rick Carlisle asked Haliburton to do in 2024-25.
Ben Sheppard is too small for Ty Jerome, Strus, Hunter but he'll show them, boy howdy, he'll show them ... T.J. McConnell can hand-check in this series which helps him and he's able to free himself against Cleveland's guards, a real boon, I can also see him shooting Indiana out of early leads.
Obi Toppin wasn't as effective in the Bucks series because, lets face it, he was playing against a bunch of Obi Toppin-types. Toppin hit for double figures twice off the bench in the Pacer/Cavalier home and home in mid-January ... Thomas Bryant is big and can pop corner threes and finish in the lane, Thomas Bryant knows what to do when the ball meets Thomas Bryant because, lemme tell ya something, Thomas Bryant loves puttin' up points. Hit 5-5 against the full-strength Cavs in a January win.
Jarace Walker had a dozen rebounds off the bench in that January game against the Cavaliers' first-team, plus 11 points off the bench in another January game against the Cavs' at full strength. Jarace also played pretty well in those two games against Cavalier second-teamers in early April and when it comes to visualization, a uniform's a uniform.
Bennedict Mathurin is too big for the Cleveland guards and too swift for the forwards, if he can stay on the floor long enough to build a sweat the Pacers could be onto an advantage. Mathurin can't break beads while standing there, though. He is one of the few with the skills to make Cleveland's East-best defense start talking to itself.
Anyone else see Jalen Rose introduce Cleveland to the "casuals" on TNT last week and tell viewers that Cavs were the NBA's best defensive team all season? Wait until Jalen hears what happened to the Seattle SuperSonics.
This could be a terrific series, even if the Cavaliers sweep. Either team has a strong chance of winning on the road, defense and shooting travels,
The long rebound battle will be paramount, these teams are awfully similar despite Cleveland's looming pair of bigs, this series is about alacrity, smart decisions made quickly, and keeping opponents off the line. The Cavs' length isn't a surprise to the Pacers, Pascal Siakam, but it will take Indiana a beat or two to catch up with Cleveland. Milwaukee and Miami were able tests for each, the Cavaliers' strength and size might be a bit for the ploughboys to overcome.
At least initially.
The Pacers' season is a measure of the group's growth, improving in critical areas as the season moves along, this can be replicated against a superior team in a playoff series.
Game 1 on Sunday in Cleveland at 6 PM Eastern on TNT
SUN, TUE, FRI, SUN, TUE, THU, SUN
Cavs in seven
CAPTAIN MIDNITE
Please forward these to all three of your friends! I could use a few new subscribers, I offered to DJ someone's wedding in New Orleans at the end of the month and I need the money to buy this giant speaker I found at a pawn shop. I'm just being honest.
Thank you for reading!
