2025 NBA Finals preview

Are the two most-entertaining NBA teams meeting in the league's Finals? Appears as if this is the case. A real rip an' roll series, flying up and down the field, reminds me of the time the 1994 Chargers took on Steve Young and his Niners in the Super Bowl. That was a fun quarter.

Will the 2025 Finals last as long? It might be one-sided, the same script may play out in four consecutive games, but the way there will be fun. And yes I'm driving there and yes I realize what I did there but it was inadvertent and I'll stop doing that soon.

The minutes before the favorite pulls away will thrill. If the Thunder do win four consecutive games by 22 apiece, the burst toward that advantage will entertain. The Pacers pass, move, groove. NBA fans already watched opponents fall to Oklahoma City while standing around, fearful to act, Indiana won't do that. Fans yell at TV and mobile screens fewer times at Indiana than they do against any other team in the NBA.

NO. 1 OKLAHOMA CITY VS. NO. 4 INDIANA

OKC won season series 2-0 over IND

THUNDER

C: Isaiah Hartenstein – started twice against Indiana in the regular season, the lone big man in each outing, two offensive rebounds in 49 minutes, only took 11 shots (made five). Bring him off the bench to win the Thomas Bryant Matchup? Seems a bit of a waste of continuity and development. I understand gilding the lineup lily to begin the third quarter, but leave the starting intros intact.
PF/C: Chet Holmgren – did not play against Indiana in 2024-25 and hit 10-28 from the floor in two 2023-24 meetings, but also with the tools and opportunities to become a Finals MVP in a four-game series.
F: Jalen Williams – nobody should be after hardware, but that same Finals MVP will go a long way toward what should become a triple-Hall of Fame lineup for Oklahoma City. If Williams is a highlight factory on defense – bodying up for slow-motion ESPN bumper outros, or poking for steals – that ongoing 20-point average will woo voters.
G: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – so will 45-point games.

Shai stepped all over the Pacers in the regular season, appearances not unlike his typical traipse around the league. Hilarious, because who has a better roster full of Shai-sized defenders than these Pacers? Yet, 39 points and seven boards and eight assist-averages and 71 percent True Shooting for The Dude, Right Here.
G: Luguentz Dort – radiates inside OKC's elasticity, hops and lunges but also moves his feet and digs in deep to crash his bones through a screen. Also hits basketball shots, on the other side of the sport. Including 9-15 threes in two regular season meetings with the Pacers: Dort hit for 22 and 13 and turned it over once in 68 minutes.

Any lineup change would work for the Thunder, they're the Thunder.

Yet sustaining the token starting lineup makes sense, why not try to overwhelm with size to start? Removing Hartenstein a few minutes into a game is less of a choice than spotting when to check him into contest. The series won't be won or lost on whether Cason Wallace or Alex Caruso start, it will come down to the Thunder hitting the long shots. The defense will work, no matter how many free throws the opponent hits, but threes gotta rain.

Wallace is made to play against a team like the Pacers, he didn't shoot well in two meetings with Indiana in the regular season but turned it over once in 60 minutes. Caruso will have to prove himself offensively yet again, as some sort of swingman off the ball or the point guard wandering around the zone.

The Thunder last played last Wednesday, back in a different month. We will talk about rhythm lost in an eight-day layoff and it is up to Wallace and Caruso to remind their teammates about the basketball game on Thursday. Make simple plays. Don't trip on or stay stuck to that new Finals logo on the floor.

Ajay Mitchell popped off the bench to hit 4-5 attempts on the road against the Pacers in December, his 6-5ish size could matter against a Pacer team full of 6-3ish ... Aaron Wiggins saw his minutes slide against Minnesota but the same appeal applies to him, the Thunder will need threes and AW had a week off to figure out what went wrong with the Wolves.

Adding a productive, fresh-legged Jaylin Williams to a battle with the Pacers' depleted front line could act as the coup de grâce, J-Will skipping backward after a swished jumper, Rick Carlisle T'ing a timeout. Of course, J-Will could miss a few jumpers and put the Pacers right back in it.

Isaiah Joe is more perimeter size to plague the Pacers, if applied appropriately ... Dillion Jones works under the same concept but is unlikely to appear, as is former lottery pick Ousmane Dieng, during competitive action.

Quite convinced that Kenrich Williams will play when the game is in the balance in the first half. Especially at home, reckon his coaching staff wants the symbolic thrust of his presence in the lineup in what will likely turn into a first championship for Oklahoma City's NBA entrant.

The Thunder have that thing where they can just decide a close game isn't going to be that way anymore. Unlike any team I've seen this century.

This bodes exceedingly well for road jaunts, like, we've come all this way, dressed up, might as well win the game. It's only a half-hour's work.

Game 3 is the one everyone's worried about, but this pretends visitors can't win in Oklahoma City.

PACERS

C: Myles Turner – managed 4-13 and 2-6 from the floor in two games against the West's best, 1-7 on threes combined, five blocks and 16 rebounds and 16 free throw attempts in 53 minutes. Turner will put the Thunder off balance, he won't be overwhelmed by two 7-footers, but he has to hit the boom babies.
F: Pascal Siakam – same thing that makes him a matchup problem against any other team – too quick for this, too big for that – sustains through any lineup Oklahoma City throws his way. Up to his teammates to recognize when Siakam's spied his upper hand.
F/G: Aaron Nesmith – staggered at times in the Eastern finals but provably capable of playing excellent two-way ball on one wheel. Extra time off (Nesmith will work two games in 11 days by Game 3) will be a boon, Indiana will need all the boons it can get.
G: Andrew Nembhard – bloody good boon. Busted out for 16 (on 13 attempts) and 23 (on 17) points against the Thunder this season. About half of what Shai scored on him but, hey, this ball has two ways, one road.

I'm driving to these games, Lafayette to Hoopeston to OKC. How could I avoid company such as this?

Of course, my trip will be longer, I chose 'Avoid Highways.' Please forward these to your friends, tell them about the old blogger driving to the Finals, maybe they'll subscribe, maybe they'll tip, I need gas money.

I begged on social media already. It was beneath me but necessary, because I want to spend all the gas money I saved up on packs of old baseball and basketball cards in Hoopeston, yes that is the real name, 45 minutes into a 15-hour drive. I think they kicked up price on 1990 Hoops, account of those Menendez boys.

I can't leave myself tapped out in Tulsa. This is the Finals, not a fake Townes Van Zandt song I made up for Carlene Carter to sing.

Andrew Nembhard's ability to play the sort of defense he wants while keeping legs for midrange jumpers off broken plays might be the biggest swing in this series. Indiana needs one of the two to survive, and could thrive if Andrew's allowed room for each.

PG: Tyrese Haliburton – has to be that guy all the time.

The vanquished Knicks are the sort of defense to drive against and kick and drive and kick and kick again with, poking and prodding until paydirt shows up. The Thunder want you to do the same but with decreasing confidence in each outcome, each sad and desperate kickout.

It is in Haliburton to fry the Thunder. His body was crunched in the Eastern finals but he's far from toast, the extra space between games should act a soothing balm. If the first few 25-footers don't fall, don't worry, it's not a story, it's not a cable segment, it's a reason to check a Pacer assistant's laptop and consider form and try again.

Three is more than two and it is the best chance Indiana has in this series. The Pacers must continually break hearts with a well-honed jumper.

The underdogs badly need Obi Toppin to stand up but this should not be an Obi Toppin series, Toppin's midrange goofiness may not fit into the three-true-outcomes NBA Finals.

"Should." Toppin hit 7-11 attempts in the two OKC games, 29 minutes, two turnovers, five assists. Five assists? Five assists.

Bennedict Mathurin needs to be big and unbothered. He needs to leave Thunder fans feeling the same way Bulls fans felt 30 years ago, thinking, I know they just beat the Knicks, but I'm not sure they beat Anthony Mason.

Mathurin plays in lanes – through them, rather – that Anthony Edwards didn't even see in the last series. Mathurin can pass but, most importantly, doesn't want to. And has a chance to keep Indiana in a lot of games, make things interesting.

T.J. McConnell made 10-15 looks against OKC in the regular season and now would be a good time to pull out an old favorite, an inbound steal when nobody is looking. Send Mike Breen to heaven with it, T.J., ascend our man Mike to a higher realm.

This is also a good time for Ben Sheppard's random-ass ability to start a fast break with a defensive rebound ... Tony Bradley's injury looked rather painful, hip flexors aren't typically speedily returned upon ... Jarace Walker put up strong numbers in each his games against the Thunder, he'll have 10 days to rest an ankle sprain, prepare himself for a series that he should expect to contribute to. He has the aim and touch and timing to play through an injury and supply needed buckets.

Thomas Bryant played the normal amount of minutes against the Thunder in those two meetings, kept things even. One thing I hope national broadcast television discovers in these Finals: Thomas Bryant won't pass, don't ask him.

James Johnson needs first half minutes. The Thunder are big, Rick Carlisle needs to counter.

The Pacers are deep, they push back at all the right positions. Is that enough? Yes.

A NOTE ABOUT THE REGULAR SEASON SERIES

The Pacers were playing well before each meeting, each loss, not always a certainty in Indiana's down and up 2024-25. The Thunder were up for all of 2024-25.

The first pairing was on Dec. 26, a contest in Indianapolis placed inside a hellacious road Pacer trip: Phoenix on a Thursday, Sacramento on a Sunday, San Francisco on a Monday, home to Indianapolis for Christmas on Wednesday and to host the Thunder on Thursday. In Boston on Friday.

Boston, of course, walked all over the weary Pacerst that Friday, winning by 37. Funny thing is Indiana stayed in Boston over the weekend, had another game with the Celtics on Sunday and kicked ass, won by nine.

The Thunder turned it over three times on Boxing Day, a typical traveler's Christmas for OKC: Orlando on a Thursday, Miami on a Friday, in Oklahoma City on a Monday, Christmas on Wednesday, in Indianapolis on Thursday, Charlotte on Saturday, OKC on Sunday.

The second meeting was in March, in OKC, the Thunder settled at home during a travel-free stretch but the Pacers were hauling: Indianapolis on a Wednesday, Washington D.C. on a Thursday, OKC on Saturday night, Indianapolis on Monday.

Basketball performances are better without travel days directly ahead of it.

A NOTE ON WHOM TO ROOT FOR

Is Oklahoma City the first NBA Finalist without an old, journeyman veteran to root for?

Doesn't every other team have a "Jerome Kersey" or "Serge Ibaka" or "Lindsey Hunter" or, geez, "the entire 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks?"

Say they canceled the pandemic season, the Bubble never happened, pretend Alex Caruso never won a ring with the Lakers, say we were rooting for Caruso's first ring: AC has fewer than 10,000 career minutes, this is not Taj Gibson we are talking about. Kenrich Williams is not a journeyman, he's all OKC. Isaiah Hartenstein is not old, he was born the day before Kerry Wood struck out 20 Astros.

Back when the Astros were in the Na-, actually, listen, that doesn't matter right now.

The Pacers, meanwhile, are full of friends you'd like to see spraying champagne: Obi Toppin for what he went through with New York, Myles Turner for being traded every year (but nope), James Johnson because America loves James Johnson.

I've waited all my life for this moment, the chance to hold someone's youth against them.

A NOTE ABOUT THE RATINGS

These are two small markets so the ratings will tank compared to previous Finals. Also, nobody has an orthodox TV hookup in 2025, so the share might resemble that of the Reggie Miller Show, which broadcast on several random Sunday nights on Indianapolis' NBC affiliate in the summer of 1996:

(Please watch the whole thing until the end, when Reggie Miller introduces the jam band. Turn it off when the jam band starts.)

These are two perfect, midrange-boosted, running, passing, defending, two-way, five-tool, basketball teams. Nearly two-dozen players will work in this series and all of them are supremely skilled. Only these two teams, in a bracket of 16, can say that.

If the ratings stink, it will be because casuals are only after showy stars. Which is weird, because they usually claim to be into all the attributes mentioned above. So let's not worry with winning over the dishonest and/or unwinnable. They have a name for people who don't want to win.

They want to grump, go grump, we'll be over here barefoot in grass thinking about babies at NBA arenas wearing airport runway earphones to protect their hearing. Try to think about babies at NBA arenas wearing airport runway earphones to protect their hearing two to three times per day.

PACERKEY

Three counts for more than two, Tyrese Haliburton is a gamebreaker the Thunder cannot counter. Haliburton is a timing player, he has to take a few quick breaths before diving through the water. All Oklahoma City does is disrupt timing.

If that disruption doesn't matter, and Haliburton's teammates follow-up from the corner and on kickouts, then we have a series.

The Thunder didn't like what happened in Minnesota in Game 3, they won't miss a game in the Finals. Haliburton's heroics can't go silent for a single outing if Indiana wants to win.

THUNDERKEY

If the best-case scenario repeatedly happens to the Pacers, fine, let it. The game is long and things even out. The Thunder won't fret in the same way they faltered against Dallas last season, the holdovers learned from it and the offseason additions don't even remember watching it.

The Thunder don't do comebacks, they stack turns, free spins on the wheel.

JIMMYKEY

What's he like, 45?

Seth was a washout at ESPN but I've read his Ringer podcast is doing great, he just re-watched 'Heaven Can Wait' and complained to listeners that today's NFL union would never let the Rams scrimmage on Farnsworth's yard.

FINALSKEY

The key to this series is the way it is called, no way around it.

A large bummer, but OKC are the ones putting hands on Pacers, the Pacers are the ones throwing go-go-gadget legs around while trying to create screens. Whistles will determine this series, and I say this irrespective of the annoying Gilgeous-Alexander infamy at the stripe.

How will the refs let the aggressive team defend? How much will the refs fall in love with aggressive drives? These are battles the Pacers can win.

THU, SUN, WED, FRI, MON, THU, SUN

Thunder in six

BELIEVE IN IT

Thanks for reading!